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TL;DR
A Chinese-speaking operator used Cairn, a free open-source AI agent platform, to target online shops from late September into mid-October, according to NorForge and Reuters. NorForge estimates the campaign’s AI costs at about $5,000, or roughly $50 per successful intrusion, but says the estimate carries considerable uncertainty; the amount of data accessed remains unknown.
An unidentified Chinese-speaking operator used AI agents running on the free, open-source platform Cairn to probe more than 1,200 online shops, with break-ins reported at websites of more than 100 companies, according to NorForge and Reuters. NorForge estimates the campaign’s AI costs at about $5,000 total, or roughly $50 per successful intrusion, a figure it says is subject to considerable uncertainty.
The campaign began around September 25 and targeted businesses in the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan. The figures come from the attackers’ exposed Cairn control panels, which security researcher Snorre Fagerland examined for NorForge. Reuters independently reviewed activity in the panels and identified companies whose websites had been compromised. NorForge reported more than 1,100 attack projects in the largest activity cluster, across 14 panels; Reuters counted more than 100 affected companies.
NorForge says successful projects in that cluster took a little under 23 hours from start to goal on average, with one lasting more than five days. The agents shared information and proposed next steps through Cairn’s common workspace, while the operator could provide instructions. NorForge estimates roughly $5,000 in AI costs for the campaign and derives its estimate of about $50 per successful hack from that total. The firm cautions that the calculation is uncertain; it is not a confirmed invoice or a general cost estimate for cyberattacks.
The reported targets include John Deere, SharkNinja and Cummins. Deere told Reuters it had taken “necessary remediation actions” and had no indication sensitive information was accessed. SharkNinja said a standalone product-support site was affected and that the threat had been contained. Cummins said it was investigating a potential attack on a website operated by a third-party vendor. Reuters could not establish how much data, if any, was taken.
One operator, a swarm of agents
The campaign in numbers
What the researcher and Reuters report about the busiest group NorForge found. Counts come from the attackers’ own exposed panels; cost and success figures are estimates.
The price tag estimates
NorForge / Fagerland, “uncertainty considerable”
- ~$5 per task on average, including tasks that fail early
- $100+ for long projects with more than 1,000 intents and facts
- ~$5,000 in AI costs for the campaign, about $50 per successful hack
- ~10% success rate, NorForge’s “reasonable assumption”
How the swarm runs
Simplified, no attack details
- Shop websites are ranked by traffic and checked automatically in a browser
- Each target becomes a Cairn project: a starting point and a goal
- Agents post facts and next steps on a shared board and build on each other
- Goal: a hidden way back in to shop and payment systems, for later
- 22 SepGambit reportGambitCairn found among three AI harnesses on a criminal’s staging server (separate campaign)
- 25 SepCampaign startsReutersA Chinese-speaking operator turns agents on shops in the US, Canada, Australia and Japan
- ≈ 2 OctOpen panels foundReutersFagerland starts finding Cairn panels in malicious use, about two dozen
- mid-Oct1,200+ sites triedReutersBreaks into websites of 100+ companies, incl. Deere, SharkNinja, Cummins
- 19 OctReport and investigationNorForge · ReutersNorForge publishes “Inside Cairn”; Reuters publishes its investigation
Sources: NorForge, Inside Cairn (19 Oct 2026); Reuters (19 Oct 2026); Gambit Security (22 Sep 2026). Numbers as published, same rounding as the article.
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Lower Costs, More Targets
The estimate points to a possible change in the economics of cybercrime: an operator may be able to direct automated agents at many potential targets without personally carrying out every step. The reported $50 figure is an estimate for this campaign, not proof that every successful break-in now costs that amount. Still, the scale described by Reuters and NorForge suggests that automation can make persistent, repeated probing less dependent on an attacker’s time.
That can affect how organizations prioritize security. The campaign reportedly reached beyond prominent corporate systems to include online shops and a product-support site; Cummins also described an investigation involving a third-party vendor website. Businesses may need to account for less-visible web properties and vendor-run services, not just their main sites. A larger volume of automated attempts can also create more alerts for security teams to review, although the source material does not quantify that burden.
The reports also raise questions about how defenders distinguish legitimate automated activity from harmful use. Cairn is a general-purpose agent platform, not a tool its author says was designed for attacks. The concern is that general AI software can be repurposed to coordinate activity at scale, complicating efforts to judge risk from the tool alone.
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How Researchers Traced Cairn
The investigation followed an earlier report by Gambit Security. In September, the firm said it had recovered a criminal staging server containing three AI agent systems, including Cairn. NorForge then searched for exposed Cairn dashboards—web panels used to manage the software—and found more than 20 that it linked to likely malicious activity. Most such panels require authorization, NorForge said, but some were accessible without a password.
From around October 2, Fagerland identified roughly two dozen panels being used for malicious activity, according to Reuters. NorForge grouped the activity into three clusters and published its report on October 19; Reuters published its investigation that day. NorForge’s report did not name victims. Reuters said it identified companies by independently reviewing activity in the Cairn panels and contacting them. Two smaller businesses acknowledged compromise, while other victims did not respond.
In NorForge’s description, Cairn is a state-based problem-solving system: agents record findings and intended actions in a shared workspace, allowing later agents to build on earlier work. The firm says the platform is more general than a hacking tool. The campaign’s purpose, in NorForge’s assessment, was to gain persistent access to e-commerce or payment infrastructure for possible later monetization; that is the firm’s interpretation, not a publicly established account of what happened to any stolen information.
““considerable””
— NorForge report
Data Access and Costs Unsettled
The available reporting does not establish how much data, if any, attackers accessed or removed. Deere reported no indication that sensitive information was accessed; SharkNinja said the threat was contained; Cummins said it was investigating. Those statements do not establish the full scope of every affected site, and Reuters could not determine whether data was taken.
The operator’s identity has not been established publicly. The reporting describes the person as a Chinese-speaking actor; it does not identify an individual, announce an arrest or report criminal charges. NorForge’s estimate of roughly $50 per successful intrusion depends on its estimate of total AI costs and the campaign’s recorded activity. The source report itself characterizes the uncertainty as considerable, and the figure should not be treated as a settled cost for future attacks.
It is also unclear whether all of the more than 1,200 targeted sites were independently verified as attacked, or whether every reported compromise involved the same methods or outcome. NorForge and Reuters describe findings from exposed control panels, but the public material does not provide a complete accounting of victims, losses or any later use of access.
Company Reviews and Follow-Up
The affected companies’ investigations and remediation efforts will help establish whether any data was accessed and whether third-party or support websites require further action. Cummins said it was investigating; Deere and SharkNinja described responses to their incidents. Further findings from those reviews could clarify the scope and consequences of the reported break-ins.
Security researchers and organizations will also be watching for additional exposed Cairn panels or related activity. NorForge said new panels continued to appear as it monitored the platform. For now, the central next step is a clearer accounting of which systems were affected, what information was exposed and whether attackers retained access. The available reports do not specify a timetable for those answers.
Key Questions
Did AI agents break into more than 100 companies?
Reuters identified break-ins at websites of more than 100 companies by reviewing activity in exposed Cairn panels. NorForge reported more than 1,200 targeted sites, but the public findings do not establish that every target was compromised.
Did each break-in cost about $50?
Not as a confirmed charge. NorForge estimates about $5,000 in AI costs for the campaign and roughly $50 per successful intrusion. The firm says the calculation has considerable uncertainty and is specific to its analysis of this campaign.
What is Cairn?
Cairn is a free, open-source platform for coordinating AI agents. NorForge describes it as a general-purpose problem-solving system; its author said it was not designed for hacking attacks.
Was sensitive customer data stolen?
The available reporting does not establish how much data, if any, was taken. Deere said it had no indication sensitive information was accessed, while Reuters said it could not determine the amount of data accessed across the reported incidents.
Has the operator been identified or arrested?
No public identification or arrest is reported in the source material. The operator is described as an unidentified Chinese-speaking actor; no charges are reported.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
