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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 combines its regular invitation for reader discussion with updates on meetups, a Boston election guide and a survey about AI safety grantmaking. It also highlights a new real-money AI prediction market and a project for community notes across websites.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly forum for reader discussion, with updates on local meetups, election information and projects related to AI funding and online platforms. The post also asks AI and grantmaking specialists to complete a survey that will help its author model how people value different AI safety accomplishments.
The post invites readers to share questions and discuss any subject, and points to the community’s unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, as well as in-person gatherings. It lists meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the post for details.
The author said the Boston ACX meetup group had completed a Greater Boston general-election voting guide. The post said additional guides might follow, while work on a Bay Area guide was still under consideration. It also flagged a Monday deadline for San Francisco mail-in ballot registration and identified Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement.
For research on AI grantmaking, the author invited people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first, which the post says may help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in assigning weights.
Research and Tools for AI Communities
The thread is a community bulletin rather than a single policy announcement, but several items show how its network is contributing to AI safety funding discussions and related online tools. The survey could provide structured input for the author’s effort to model parts of grantmaking; the post says automation may be a longer-term possibility, not a current result.
Its other notices connect readers with practical local activity, including election information and meetups, and with new platforms that may shape public discussion about AI. The range of items matters to readers because the thread serves both as a discussion space and as a distribution point for projects seeking participants, users or feedback.
The post does not report outcomes from the survey, establish that any grantmaking process has been automated, or independently verify the performance of the promoted projects. Those limits distinguish the announcements and invitations from completed findings.
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A Weekly Community Bulletin
Open Thread 456 follows the format described in the post: a recurring, open-ended space where readers can discuss topics beyond a single news story. Astral Codex Ten says most of its content is free, with some material available only to subscribers, and lists several online and in-person ways for readers to take part.
The post’s local notices range from meetup changes to election-related information. The Boston group’s guide was described as finished, while the author characterized a possible Bay Area guide as still being worked out. The San Francisco mail-in registration deadline and the October 24 meetup were presented as time-sensitive notices in the original post.
The thread also points to projects by people connected to the blog. Manifold Markets co-founder and grantee Stephen Grugett announced MNX, described in the post as a real-money prediction market focused on AI. Goodheart Labs was identified as working on Common Notes, a project described as extending community notes beyond one social platform.
““This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.””
— Astral Codex Ten author, in Open Thread 456
Survey and Project Details Ahead
The post does not give survey results, explain how responses will be weighted, or say when the grantmaking model might be completed. The author described automation as a possible future aim, so the thread does not establish that an automated grantmaking system exists.
It also provides no detailed methodology or performance evidence for MNX or Common Notes. The prediction-market products and Common Notes features are described in the thread, but their availability, operating details and uptake are not independently established there. The author said a Bay Area election guide might be developed, but did not confirm that one would be published.
The post’s market comparison is a time-specific observation: it says Polymarket and MNX priced Anthropic at around $2 trillion despite discussion of a possible drop from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. It does not explain the contracts, timing, or basis for those figures, so they should not be treated as a verified company valuation or a settled forecast.
Upcoming Surveys and Local Events
Readers with relevant experience can complete the AI safety accomplishment survey and, if they have time, the alternate version asking them to predict the author’s answers. The post says both are intended to support data collection for the author’s modeling work; it gives no publication date for results.
The author said a Bay Area ACX meetup was scheduled for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco, and described the notice as an early heads-up ahead of a possible separate post. The thread also directs readers to its original post for details on changes to the other listed meetups.
Any further election guides, including a possible Bay Area guide, remain dependent on developments the author said were still being worked out. The thread does not specify a schedule for additional guides or updates on MNX and Common Notes.
Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open discussion post, inviting readers to talk about any subject and sharing community announcements.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask participants to do?
The main survey asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first one.
What is MNX, according to the post?
The thread describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with markets involving AI company stocks, revenues and capability-index targets. The post does not provide further operating details.
What is Common Notes?
Goodheart Labs describes Common Notes as a project intended to bring community notes to content across the web, using AI-generated notes, user contributions and voting, alongside a browser extension.
When and where was the Bay Area meetup scheduled?
The post listed it for Saturday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The post presents this as an advance notice.
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